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Reports

Integrated Transportation Scenario Planning

Published July 01, 2010

Regional land use-transportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S. metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues to track the development and expansion of regional scenario planning, using 28 projects completed between 2003 and 2010. These projects demonstrate the continued popularity of scenario planning techniques when used to articulate and evaluate compact alternatives for future growth. The research team used hierarchical multivariate modeling to evaluate 107 scenarios, demonstrating important associations between land use and transportation variables and vehicle travel demand. Coefficients from this analysis suggest that a shift to compact development—increasing average regional density by 50 percent by 2050, emphasizing infill, mixing land uses, and increasing the price of automobile use--could result in 25% fewer VMT compared to amounts projected under trend conditions. The projects also demonstrate important methods for effectively integrating scenario techniques into traditional long-range regional transportation planning processes. These important advances in regional scenario practice are hampered, to some degree, by continued limitations in the ability of travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of land use-based strategies. Another limitation is the failure by project sponsors to incorporate important changes in global economic and environmental conditions, such as climate change and peak oil, both as input variables and as evaluation metrics.

Keith Bartholomew & Reid Ewing with Gail Meakins

Wasatch Choices 2040 and the Northwest Quadrant Master Plan: A Cross-Scale Exploration of Regional Strategic Frames

Published May 07, 2010

A growing body of urban planning research acknowledges the importance of frames in the evolution of urban ideals. Frames are “mental structures that shape the way we see the world” and as a result, frames can “shape the goals we seek, the plans we make, the way we act, and what counts as good or bad outcome of our actions” (Lakoff, 2004). In urban planning contexts, strategic spatial planning frames help to shape a region’s identity, forge a sense of geographic interdependency, and manage development issues across a hierarchy of geographic scales. The methodological fulcrum of this report lies in the leverage gained by examining how spatial planning frames function across geographic scales. In that light we explore two recent planning efforts – each at a different scale – that illustrate relevant processes and thus offer insight into the significance of frames in regional planning endeavors. In the end, we bring to light novel conclusions, find questions that beg further discussion, and bring into focus the role spatial planning frames play in defining how a metropolitan region works and how it might be more constructively governed.

Grace Bjarnson, Edward Cusick, Holly Hilton and Gail Meakins; Prof. Philip C. Emmi, Instructor

The Best Stimulus for the Money

Published April 01, 2009

The tens of billions in federal stimulus funds for transportation, coming to states and regions at a time of substantial budget difficulties, adds urgency to the question “what is the best use of transportation dollars?” Transportation touches all aspects of our communities, but the current economic downturn and the stimulus have placed an extra emphasis on the economic purposes of transportation investments. Two economic goals have been paramount: 1. put as many people to work as quickly as possible, and 2. make the investments that best position the nation for long term prosperity. With respect to the first goal, much has been made of “shovel ready” projects — those projects that can be started immediately. The speed goal of “shovel ready” has been embraced by states and regions across the country. The second goal has occupied a decidedly secondary position. There has been relatively little debate over the location and types of transportation investment that do the most to prepare the country for long-term economic prosperity. Where discussions have occurred they tend to be cursory and anecdotal. Either it has been assumed that all “shovel ready” projects inevitably contribute equally to long term prosperity, or it has been asserted that selecting for the projects that do the most to position the country for long term prosperity will slow the rate at which new money puts people to work. Are all transportation projects of equal value to long-term economic growth? If not, is it possible to select projects with better return and still move money and employ people in the economy quickly? Smart Growth America commissioned the following papers to answer these questions. The findings are encouraging. The research shows there is ample opportunity to pursue long term prosperity through projects that are “shovel ready” — provided we pick the right projects. The research results are doubly encouraging because, though immediate economic needs have taken center stage, transportation’s impact on equity, neighborhoods, energy security, and the environment remains. Real-world results show that transportation projects that help the nation meet these broader challenges are frequently the same projects that deliver the best short-term job production and long-term economic returns.

Arthur C. Nelson, Geoffrey Anderson, Keith Bartholomew, Pamela Perlich, Thomas W. Sanchez, & Reid Ewing

Reports

Integrated Transportation Scenario Planning

Wasatch Choices 2040 and the Northwest Quadrant Master Plan: A Cross-Scale Exploration of Regional Strategic Frames

The Best Stimulus for the Money

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